It’s the start of the season for your favorite sport. Everything is new, exciting, and provides a world of possibilities. Hope springs eternal. And you just so happen to have a few extra dollars burning a hole in your pocket, so you decide that now would be a perfect time to lay down a few bets and turn those extra few dollars into an even greater amount of extra dollars. But between work, your home life, and your family commitments, you aren’t as immersed in the latest-and-greatest intelligence out there, to where you feel comfortable making a particular bet, and you don’t want to throw away your money. But then you see an ad for a professional sports handicapper who not only guarantees that they’ll provide you with “can’t-lose” betting recommendations, but they also won’t take a single dime from you if you happen to lose that wager. In other words, they tell you it’s a win-win situation. You get information from an “expert,” and you only have to pay them if they end up being right. So do you bite the bullet and pay one of these experts? Not so fast, my friend…Here are 5 reasons to never pay for sports picks:
1 – You Don’t Know Their Credentials
Keep this adage in mind the next time someone sells themselves as an “expert” sports handicapper: a rich man will never need to tell you he’s rich.
The truth is, there is no credentialing process involved in becoming an “expert” sports handicapper. In fact, if you happen to go on a hot streak where you make three successful wagers in a row, you too can set up your own website, describe yourself as a “sports betting expert,” and start selling your picks.
There are real-world stories of individuals who have provided their picks based on whatever their four-year-old son predicted. While this is obviously an extreme case, that goes to show that anyone can call themselves an “expert” online, without ever having to back up such a designation.
2 – Their Advertised Success Rates Are Skewed
As we’ve mentioned before…when it comes to making sports picks, even the very best handicappers in the world usually max out somewhere around a 55% success rates. So, when you see those scintillating claims of someone boasting about an “80% success rate,” in reality, that person is usually taking a lot of liberties in determining what constitutes “success,” and/or cherry picking a particular set of wins while failing to include all their losses.
And the best part for them (and the worst part for you, as a consumer) is that there are no safeguards to prevent them from making such lofty claims, either because there really isn’t any watchdog organization to regulate all of this, and because they’ll justify such ridiculous claims with a misleading and convoluted explanation of how they arrived at that number.
3 – It Doesn’t Make Sense For Handicappers To Sell Their Best Picks
There is a small cabal of individuals who have developed sophisticated predictive data modeling methods for the sole purpose of using them for sports handicapping. Given that, think about it from a rational perspective: do you really think that, after putting in so much legwork to develop these statistical models, these individuals are going to start making these picks readily available to the public?
Even if you think that they would want to do so, because they could stand to profit from selling their projections, the truth is that there’s more profit to be made for them by using the results they’ve computed and making wagers on that information, versus selling it to random sports bettors. In fact, if they compute a result that shows there is a good opportunity to make a high-upside bet, why would they want to make this valuable information available to people, and run the risk of potentially skewing the lines and making a wager less lucrative for them?
Simply put those individuals who do tend to have higher success rates are going to be very reluctant to share this information because there’s the potential for it to cut into their profit margins directly. So keep that in mind for the next time someone tells you they have some “secret can’t-miss tip” they want to sell you.
4 – You Can Do Much Of The Same Work Yourself
As you might have gathered by now, most sports handicappers are either giving you information based on their own subjective and arbitrary feelings about the outcome of a given event or are utilizing information that’s very commonly available on the internet. Then they package it in a way that seems like they’re providing you some “exclusive” information. Like we said: those individuals who have found a way to (somewhat) accurately predict the outcome of a sporting event by using sophisticated data modeling methods sure as heck aren’t going to give away their findings for some nominal cost (or for free).
Point being: if you’re someone who wants to make a few bucks of sports handicapping, there are a myriad of resources you can access online that will give you virtually the same amount of “insider knowledge” as the so-called handicappers. Almost every major sports website will have information about how teams have fared against an opponent, against the spread, and other such information. Why not use that information yourself to make the most educated guesses, and then build your own database of knowledge and experience based on the outcome of your bets?
5 – It’s Not Worth It For You
Here’s the real irony of paying for a sports bet: when you lose a bet, you lose money. But there are plenty of instances when, if you pay for a pick, you might end up winning a bet, but still end up losing money.
It’s already difficult enough to churn out a profit with sports betting since you’ll be averaging in the neighborhood of a 53% success rate (and that’s if you’re very good) on bets that won’t have the largest yield. The real “professional” sports handicappers know that it’s about devoting their units towards bets that have low risk, but also a low reward. Since you’re barely eking out a profit by making these bets (especially after accounting for all the losses incurred from incorrect picks), why add another cost to your profit & losses sheet of sports betting?
Do You Really Need To Pay For Sports Picks?
The simple truth is that the vast majority of people will wager a given sum of money on sporting events just for the sheer thrill of the betting experience, hoping for the euphoria of hitting on a bet, but fully knowing there’s a higher probability that they’ll end up losing that wager. Again, even the best sports handicappers know they’ll endure plenty of streaks where they lose more bets than they win.
Given that, why bother paying someone else for insight that, from a purely mathematical standpoint, gives you an advantage of maybe a few percentage points, if that, then making a pick yourself? Even with services that only take your money if a pick turns out to be correct, the cost you have to pay for said correct pick might negate any of the winnings you were going to receive.
We’ll leave you with another adage to keep in mind, the next time someone wants to sell you a “can’t miss” sports tip coming from someone with a curiously-high success rate: if it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is.